The Australian Dollar continues to get a vote of confidence remaining at elevated levels despite the uneasy position that the Europeans face as well as the shaky ground the US is on.
Our economy is relatively strong so the currency deserves to reflect this and in addition the low interest rates of others along with Australia having one of the highest official interest rates in the developed world has given it a nice kick along.
Lately the mixed messages our economy is sending continue and yesterday we saw Home Loans surprise on the positive while the Job Advertisement numbers disappointed. We have retailers not too happy, banks doing quite well in the unstable environment, growth carrying on; it sounds like the different parts of the economy are not in sync, each on a different path.
If China’s GDP numbers later today surprise on the downside then one can justifiably get worried that our position will get worse for the near term at least. In isolation our currency is being seen as a lucky partner to China’s success and anything negative from that part of the world would almost signal a cut in our interest rates and in turn a falling Aussie dollar.
Our domestic issues have a bearing on our currency although the main factors to movements in our currency are overseas events, which we have little control over. Other local data points which one should look out for, is the Unemployment Rate on Thursday that may have some impact if the figure is much worse than the expected 5.3%.
Most eyes this week will be on Europe where Greece will be trying to re-negotiate the terms of its debt. Even if the slightest of hope were to come from these negotiations markets will rejoice and our currency should benefit where as on the flip side, if very little comes out it will be seen as another negative and should send our currency closer towards the parity levels once again.
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